In the Likely Event is a romantic novel by Rebecca Yarros. The novel follows the story of Izzy and Nate, two young people who meet while on the cusp of adulthood moments before an unexpected plane crash. Nate goes into the military and Izzy attends college and law school, each moving in different directions, but drawn back to one another until a misunderstanding irrevocably separates them.

Meeting again in war-torn Afghanistan, Izzy and Nate find themselves forced to face the battle between them as the world around them falls apart. In a dual-plotline structure that alternates between descriptions of the characters’ early relationship and their unexpected reunion in 2021, the novel strategically juxtaposes these contrasting timelines to explore the idea that sometimes love isn’t enough. As a best-selling romance author whose novels have become a sensation, Rebecca Yarros also draws upon her own family’s experiences to inform the military-themed aspects of In the Likely Event, for her husband has completed multiple deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan over the years.

This guide is based on the Kindle e-book edition published in 2023 by Montlake, Seattle.

Content Warning: In the Likely Event features storylines relating to domestic abuse and mental health conditions, including Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), which this guide discusses.

Plot Summary

Nathaniel “Nate” Phelan is a soldier in the US Army’s Special Forces. As the story begins, he is in Afghanistan waiting for the arrival of a congressional delegation that he and his team have been assigned to protect. Nate is not pleased to discover that the congressional aide he is to protect is Isabeau “Izzy” Astor, a woman with whom he had a romantic entanglement until three years ago.

The narrative flashes back to 2011, when Izzy boards a plane during her first year of college, returning to school after a visit to her sister. When she finds her seat, it is occupied by Nate. They spend the time before take-off discussing their shared love of literature and their plans for the future. Unfortunately, minutes after taking off, the plane crashes into the Missouri River. Amidst the wreckage, Nate helps pull Izzy and other passengers from the water, then tells the paramedics that he is Izzy’s husband so that he can stay with her when she goes to the hospital. Izzy has ruptured her spleen and needs surgery, which Nate signs for. While she is still in surgery, Nate is escorted by local army personnel to catch another flight.

The narrative returns to 2021. Nate argues with Izzy about her presence in Afghanistan until he learns that she has come to find her sister, Serena, who is a photojournalist, and to ensure her sister returns safely to the United States. Nate, despite being heartbroken at the realization that Izzy is now engaged to another man, agrees to help her locate Serena.

The narrative flashes back to the aftermath of the plane crash in 2011. The airline sends Nate’s backpack to Izzy after the accident, so she knows his name but nothing else. Therefore, she is thrilled when she and Nate run into each other at a bar in Georgia in 2014. They reconnect and spend a day together, but Nate refuses to commit Izzy to a relationship because he is about to deploy to Afghanistan. Instead, they exchange letters for several months before he comes home and surprises her on her birthday. During that time, they make plans to fly to Fiji in 2017.

The narrative returns to 2021. Nate and Izzy locate Serena in a city called Mazar-i-Sharif. Izzy arranges to add the town to the congressional delegates’ itinerary. Nate escorts her there to greet evacuees, but Serena doesn’t show up until moments before Izzy is due to leave. Serena assures Izzy that she is safe, but she refuses to leave until her interpreter, Taj Barech, receives his visa and can travel with her. Izzy returns to the embassy and is surprised to find that her fiancé, Jeremy Covington, has flown to Afghanistan to demand that she forgive him for cheating on her. They argue, and Izzy ends the engagement.

The narrative shifts to 2017, when Nate and Izzy meet again on a flight to Fiji. By this point, Izzy has graduated from law school and wants to get a job with a firm near the base where Nate is stationed, but he insists that it’s not a good idea because he is about to join the Special Forces; his availability will be limited, and he will likely be relocated. Izzy complains that Nate never shares the essence of himself with her, and this issue comes to a head one night after he reacts violently when she wakes him from a nightmare. Nate again insists that they cannot be in a relationship, but he makes arrangements for them to take more trips in the future, including a trip to Palau in a year.

In 2021, after ending her engagement, Izzy is flown to the airport in Kandahar where she is to meet with a girls’ chess team and provide visas for the girls, their families, and the coach. Unfortunately, shortly after arriving, the runway is destroyed by rockets that originated from the surrounding city, where the Taliban is attempting to take control of the area. Izzy and Nate are forced to spend the night until reinforcements can come to rescue them. When Izzy returns to the embassy the next day, it is only to discover that she has been abandoned by Jeremy and the majority of her team after the State Department ordered an evacuation of the embassy.

The narrative shifts back in time to 2018. Izzy flies to Palau for her scheduled trip with Nate, but he never shows up. Izzy tries to contact him over the phone and searches for him on social media, but she cannot find him. She returns home, and Nate shows up a short time later, explaining that a friend of his died during Special Forces training. Nate asks Izzy to marry him, but because of his erratic emotional state, she refuses. This is the last time that Izzy sees Nate until her arrival in Afghanistan in 2021.

Back in the present moment, Izzy and Nate argue about their past, and Izzy discovers that Nate has carried her engagement ring with him for the past three years. Izzy goes to Nate and explains her feelings, and they both admit that they love each other. Shortly afterward, the embassy is evacuated, and Nate arranges for Izzy to fly home on a private plane. Thanks to Nate and his team, Serena and Taj arrive in time to join Izzy on the flight. Five years later, Nate has left the army and has become an English teacher. He and Izzy are married and are living in Maine.